Once again, it’s time for Oscar predictions.  I did pretty well last year, getting 16 correct, and almost all of the major categories (curse you Meryl!).  This year is going to be an extremely tough one, given all of the drama involving Ben Affleck’s snub in the directing category.

Best Short Film, Live Action:
Prediction: Curfew
My Pick: N/A

Best Short Film, Animated:
Prediction: Paperman
My Pick: Paperman
Everyone loved Paperman, which played before Wreck-it Ralph.  It’s a perfectly sweet and heartfelt hand drawn/CG combination, and seems like a certainty.

Best Documentary, Short Subject:
Prediction:Open Heart
My Pick: N/A

Best Documentary, Feature:
Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man
My Pick: N/A

Best Foreign Language Film:
Prediction: Amour
My Pick: N/A
This one is obvious, considering Amour is also nominated for Best Picture.

Best Animated Feature Film:
Prediction: Wreck-it Ralph
My Pick: Wreck-it Ralph
This year gives us a great field of animated features.  All of the movies are worthy, and it’s awesome to see something as unique as Paranorman get nominated.  I could see this Oscar going to either Ralph or Brave, but I think Ralph was more of a crowd-pleaser. Brave was fantastic, but didn’t feel particularly original.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
Prediction: Life of Pi
My Pick: The Avengers
Life of Pi had the most gorgeous effects, and a perfect use of 3D, but I felt that there were times in it when the effects weren’t as convincing as they could have been. The Avengers, with its only nomination, deserves this award, if for no other reason than the Whedonesque long take of all of the team battling on various levels of the city.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty
My Pick: Skyfall

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing:
Prediction: Les Miserables
My Pick: Les Miserables
This seems like a sure thing, given the big deal made about the live singing in Les Miserables.  Mixing the live recordings from different takes in different angles with the studio music and the background sounds was a mighty task that was pulled off to perfection.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling:
Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
My Pick: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Hairstyling was added to the category name this year.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:
Prediction: “Skyfall” – Skyfall
My Pick: “Skyfall” – Skyfall
This category was much improved over the travesty of last year.  “Skyfall” is a guaranteed winner, and deservedly so, but it was nice to see the original song, “Suddenly,” from Les Miserables get a nomination also.  Hopefully this is the sign that things are turning around for this horribly mistreated category.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score:
Prediction: Life of Pi
My Pick: The Avengers
This one was thought to be a lock for John Williams and Lincoln when the nominations were announced, but given the change in Lincoln’s fortunes, it seems like Life of Pi is the most likely choice. Pi had a beautiful score, though of the nominees I would prefer Williams’ subtle Lincoln score better.  Neither of my two favorite scores this year were nominated, however. The Hunger Games had an immersive and interesting score that perfectly helped set the mood and style of District 13.  But my favorite was Alan Silvestri’s thrilling score for The Avengers.

Best Achievement in Costume Design:
Prediction: Anna Karenina
My Pick: Les Miserables

Best Achievement in Production Design:
Prediction: Les Miserables
My Pick: Les Miserables
This category got a new name this year (it previously was Art Direction), which I think suits the category a bit better.

Best Achievement in Editing:
Prediction: Argo
My Pick: Argo

Best Achievement in Cinematography:
Prediction: Life of Pi
My Pick: Life of Pi

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Published or Produced:
Prediction: Lincoln
My Pick: Silver Linings Playbook
This award could be the early indicator of how the rest of the evening will shake out.  If Tony Kushner wins for Lincoln, it makes the Lincoln sweep that was predicted early on much more likely, but if Argo wins, then it means the blowback against Lincoln is in full force.  I, for one, loved David O. Russell’s script for Silver Linings Playbook, but I also think Stephen Chbosky deserved a nomination for adapting his own book into the wonderful The Perks of Being a Wallflower.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Prediction: Django Unchained
My Pick: The Avengers
This one could go to Zero Dark Thirty, but all of the talk about the way torture was depicted in that film might have hurt its chances.  Tarantino’s gritty and colorful Django script, with its repetitive use of the n-word, might win instead, if for no other reason than the Academy seems to like him.  It’s a crime that Joss Whedon wasn’t nominated for The Avengers (I’m not sure whether it would count as original or adapted, so I’m putting it here).  It was the most highly praised and original script of the year, and it pulled off something many thought to be impossible, giving humor, life and heart to a genre that most had written off as repetitive.  His script is, for my money, the biggest reason The Avengers was the highest grossing film of the year and the 3rd highest of all time, and is the reason he’s been given the reigns of Marvel’s Phase 2 film series and accompanying TV series.

Best Achievement in Directing:
Prediction: Steven Spielberg; Lincoln
My Pick: Steven Spielberg; Lincoln
This is the category that’s caused all of the drama of this awards season.  Ben Affleck’s snub for Argo set off a firestorm of support for that film, which led to it winning pretty much every award since the nominations were announced.  Without him in the race, it looks like the frontrunner from even before the nominations were announced will win, and deservedly so, but Affleck’s shadow is everywhere this year.  If the fury directed at Lincoln is high enough, Ang Lee could win this for Life of Pi, but that seems unlikely.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Prediction: Anne Hathaway; Les Miserables
My Pick: Anne Hathaway; Les Miserables
This and Best Actor are 100% locks.  Anne was amazing as Fantine, and her Oscar is a certainty.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones; Lincoln
My Pick: Mark Ruffalo; The Avengers
See my previous comments for Director, Screenplay, etc.  The anti-Lincoln feelings could rob Tommy Lee Jones of this one and give it to Christoph Waltz for Django or someone else, but I don’t see that happening.  (I would actually give this award to Jones over Ruffalo, but I thought Ruffalo was so perfect as Bruce Banner in The Avengers, largely because of Whedon’s brilliant writing, that I wanted to give him a mention.  Watch the way Ruffalo winces after accidentally saying “the Hulk” before changing it to “the ‘other guy’” and you’ll see why I think he deserved having his name up there.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence; Silver Linings Playbook
My Pick: Jennifer Lawrence; Silver Linings Playbook
Early on this seemed like a sure thing for Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty, but the controversy that that film has courted has hurt her chances.  Lawrence was both funny and heartbreaking in Playbook and the momentum seems to have swung her way.  (Plus, her great performance in the more popular The Hunger Games helps her chances.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis; Lincoln
My Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis; Lincoln
No chance for anyone else.  This one was written when he was first cast.

Best Picture:
Prediction: Lincoln
My Pick: *See Below
This has been one of the craziest awards seasons as far as Best Picture is concerned.  I generally don’t follow the Oscar campaigns, mostly because I think the endless stumping for your movie is insincere at best.  The awards should be based on merit as determined by the voting body, and shouldn’t be swayed by how well actors/producers/directors schmooze with the Academy.  But it’s been hard to miss this year.  Before the nominations were released, this seemed like Lincoln’s year. Argo was well liked, but didn’t feature performances to rival Lincoln. Zero Dark Thirty had been an early frontrunner, but the controversy over its script had dimmed its star too much.  So when Lincoln scored the most nominations of the bunch, it seemed like it was a done deal.

But then something weird happened.  There was an outcry over the fact that Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for Best Director for Argo.  Normally, when a film is nominated for Best Picture and not Best Director it’s a guarantee that that film will not win Best Picture.  But the internet exploded in outrage over the implication that Argo was not worthy to win, despite its nomination.  A strong campaign was started, not just for Argo but actively against Lincoln, as though the makers of Lincoln were personally responsible for this insult (nevermind that there were two controversial choices for Best Director that bumped Affleck out).  There has always been a rabid anti-Spielberg force online, and they came out in force to attack Lincoln.  Suddenly it was a film that was far too sentimental, because that’s the way Spielberg makes all of his films, and it was boring, full of people talking about the political process.  “Sure Day-Lewis was great, but the whole thing was just overrated,” they would say.  Suddenly Argo became the “cool” choice.

I don’t know how much all of the debate will affect the votes of the Academy.  It’s true that the Golden Globes for Picture and Director went to Argo, but the HFPA is notably susceptible to the influence of Affleck and Clooney (who produced Argo).  People are now predicting a massive anti-Lincoln fallout, leaving only Director and Actor as certainties.  If the backlash is large, then previous categories that Lincoln was the frontrunner of (Supporting Actor, Original Score, Adapted Screenplay) will go to other things.  It’s odd and unfair that (justifiable) outrage on behalf of one film could have the effect of destroying the prospects of a different film. Lincoln was in no way responsible for Affleck’s snub, yet it seems to be taking the punishment regardless.  I’m predicting Lincoln will still take its fair share of Oscars, but I’m now greatly in the minority.  If nothing else, the Oscars could be more interesting than in previous years because of it.

*As for my pick for Best Picture, I’m actually pretty torn this year.  Depending on my mood, I could easily go with Lincoln, The Avengers, Les Miserables, or even Silver Linings Playbook.  They all spoke to different parts of me, and they all have their own merits.  It’s hard for me not to pick The Avengers, which was both the most fun and the most most creative film of the year, with a brilliant script by Joss Whedon. Les Miserables was a masterpiece, and has revitalized the possibility of the Hollywood musical. Lincoln was perfection, telling a familiar story in a different way than we’re used to, with career-defining performances from several of its leads, all masterfully handled by Spielberg. Silver Linings Playbook was the rebellious cousin that spoke to the outcast in all of us.  If I was forced to pick my favorite film from the past year it would be The Avengers, but I could gladly name any of these four my “Best Picture” of 2013.