Once again, it’s time for Oscar predictions. Last year I aced Best Picture, Director and the Acting categories, but was 14/24 overall.

Best Short Film, Live Action:
Prediction: Wish 143
My Pick: N/A

Best Short Film, Animated:
Prediction: Day & Night
My Pick: Day & Night
I thought Pixar’s latest short was absolutely brilliant and it deserves the win, though I would give the Oscar to the “Tale of the Three Brothers” sequence from Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 if it were eligible.

Best Documentary, Short Subject:
Prediction: Sun Come Up
My Pick: N/A

Best Documentary, Feature:
Prediction: Exit Through the Gift Shop
My Pick: N/A
I’m absolutely shocked that Waiting for Superman wasn’t nominated. It was definitely the most talked about Documentary of the year, and one of the most important.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Prediction: Biutiful
My Pick: N/A
I think Javier Bardem’s nomination for Best Actor greatly improved Biutiful’s odds.

Best Animated Feature Film:
Prediction: Toy Story 3
My Pick: Tangled
As fantastic as Toy Story 3 is (and it’s certainly a lock for this Oscar), I actually enjoyed Tangled more. I think the Toy Story series has gotten a little tired and repetitive, while Tangled was fresh and fun and absolutely gorgeously animated

Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
Prediction: Inception
My Pick: Tron: Legacy
In 1982 when the original Tron was released, it did not get a nomination for Best Visual Effects because the Academy felt that using computers generated effects was cheating. So it must be some sort of cosmic joke/insult that Tron: Legacy wasn’t nominated this year. It’s absolutely ridiculous and it makes me mad. I’m sure Inception will win, but Tron: Legacy was visual art, the greatest of eye candy, and the effects were thrillingly staged. I am definitely happy that Alice in Wonderland and Harry Potter got nominations, though I felt that Iron Man 2’s effects were mediocre at best.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
Prediction: Inception
My Pick: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing:
Prediction: Inception
My Pick: Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Best Achievement in Makeup:
Prediction: The Way Back
My Pick: Alice in Wonderland

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:
Prediction: “I See the Light” – Tangled
My Pick: “When Will My Life Begin” – Tangled
This category has become the most consistently inconsistent of all categories. The Golden Globe winning song wasn’t nominated for an Oscar. This one could definitely go in any direction. I hope Tangled wins, though. I think a musical should have an automatic advantage over a non-musical in this category.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score:
Prediction: Inception
My Pick: Tangled
I loved the score for Tangled, but having Daft Punk score Tron: Legacy, was a stroke of genius. It was creative and original, and it would have been nice to see it get a nomination.

Best Achievement in Costume Design:
Prediction: The King’s Speech
My Pick: Alice in Wonderland
As usual, the Academy favors period pieces, particularly ones with royalty, in this category. Alice in Wonderland stands its best chance of winning an Oscar in this category, I think, but it’s not very likely.

Best Achievement in Art Direction:
Prediction: Inception
My Pick: Alice in Wonderland
I think Inception is going to clean up the technical and visual categories, but I absolutely loved the world created in Alice in Wonderland. I also think Scott Pilgrim vs. the World was creative enough that it should have gotten a nomination.

Best Achievement in Editing:
Prediction: The Social Network
My Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
I think the fast-talking battles of The Social Network will take this category, but Harry Potter was a masterpiece of tension and excitement.

Best Achievement in Cinematography:
Prediction: Black Swan
My Pick: Alice in Wonderland

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Published or Produced:
Prediction: The Social Network
My Pick: Alice in Wonderland
I think Aaron Sorkin has this category locked up, but I loved the story they made out of Lewis Carroll’s random and abstract classic.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Prediction: The King’s Speech
My Pick: The King’s Speech
To take the story of a man overcoming a stutter, and turn it into a triumphant and inspiring film is a difficult task. It will be great to see a film about one person helping another win Best Picture, and it all starts with the script. It’s touching and believable without being sappy or overly dramatic. And it has the best scene of cursing ever seen on film.

Best Achievement in Directing:
Prediction: David Fincher; The Social Network
My Pick: Tim Burton; Alice in Wonderland
Tom Hooper could pull an upset over Fincher, for his subtle work on The King’s Speech, but I think that film is viewed more as belonging to the actors. I think this is Fincher’s award to lose.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld; True Grit
My Pick: Hailee Steinfeld; True Grit
I’m going to pick an upset in this category. Melissa Leo seems to be the frontrunner, for The Fighter, but there’s a lot of talk about 14-year old Hailee Steinfeld (though I think she should be in the Best Actress category, personally). Hailee was the heart and soul of True Grit and she more than holds her own against some fantastic actors. I would love to see her up on stage for her performance.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Prediction: Geoffrey Rush; The King’s Speech
My Pick: Geoffrey Rush; The King’s Speech
This could easily go to Christian Bale, for The Fighter, but Rush has a long history with the Academy, and he arguably had the more difficult role in The King’s Speech. I thought of making my personal pick Rupert Grint from Harry Potter, because I really thought he was fantastic as Ron, but Rush was hard for me to ignore.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Prediction: Natalie Portman; Black Swan
My Pick: Mia Wasikowska; Alice in Wonderland
I’m ashamed to say I didn’t see any of the nominees in this category (especially The Kids are All Right). I’m happy Natalie Portman is getting recognition, though.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Prediction: Colin Firth; The King’s Speech
My Pick: Colin Firth; The King’s Speech
There’s no doubt about this one. The Social Network fans will squawk about Jesse Eisenberg, but that’s because they haven’t seen Firth’s performance. It’s powerful and touching and everything that deserves recognition. He makes George VI sweet and caring, but broken and frustrated, and brings heart and strength to every word. And he can take such an emotional and triumphant role and inject humor and warmth into the character at the same time. His delivery in the famous cursing scene is absolutely perfect.

Best Picture:
Prediction: The King’s Speech
My Pick: The King’s Speech
In the second year of having 10 nominees, a trend has appeared. There seems to be a divide between the 5 films that would have been nominated under the old rules and the 5 films that are benefiting from the expansion. I like that films such as Toy Story 3 and True Grit are able to be recognized, and that films like Winter’s Bone can compete with the big studio films, but they’re not really expected to have much of a chance. If there’s any race at all here, it’s between The King’s Speech and The Social Network. There have been bunches of articles about how it’s a battle between old and new Hollywood, or between age and youth, or between heart and brains, but all of that is pretty silly. In the end, The King’s Speech will win, not because it’s emotionally manipulative, or because of some conspiracy, but because it’s the better film and means more to more people. It’s the sort of film that people will remember years and years from now, for the power of the performances and the beauty of the story.

It will be interesting to see how Anne Hathaway and James Franco do as hosts. They’re certainly young and energetic, and Hathaway has proved she can sing. We’ll just have to wait and see.