The Oscars are tonight, and even though I’ve waited until the last minute, I thought I’d offer up my opinions, picks, and predictions. Last year I correctly predicted 13 out of the 24 winners, and an abysmal 4 out of the 8 winners in the major categories (acting, picture, director, and screenwriting). I’m now going to give you my breakdown of the categories. For each category I have my prediction of who will win (the nominees can be found here), and my pick if I could choose from any film eligible, whether nominated or not. So without further ado.

Best Short Film, Live Action:
Prediction: Speilzeugland
My Pick: N/A

Best Short Film, Animated:
Prediction: Presto
My Pick: Presto

Best Documentary, Short Subjects:
Prediction: The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
My Pick: N/A

Best Documentary, Features:
Prediction: Man on Wire
My Pick: N/A

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year:
Prediction: Vals Im Bashir (Israel)
My Pick: N/A

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:
Prediction: WALL-E
My Pick: WALL-E
All three were very good, but WALL-E is not only the greatest animated film of all time, but might be one of the greatest films of all time. I don’t understand only having 3 nominees in this category, though. I would have nominated Horton Hears A Who as well.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
Prediction: Iron Man
My Pick: Speed Racer

I’m not sure why The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was nominated in this category, since most of its visual effects were makeup effects, and there’s already a category for makeup. This year there’s not a clear frontrunner for best visual effects, unlike last year’s Transformers (which lost in a big upset to The Golden Compass). I liked the effects in Iron Man a lot, but I didn’t feel there was anything new in them. I’m torn between The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, which featured very realistic and spectacular effects, and Speed Racer, which critics panned but I thought was very original and fun. So I pick Speed Racer.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
Prediction: WALL-E
My Pick: WALL-E

I’m predicting something of an upset here. This was the only film of the nominees where the sound was important to the story and the atmosphere of the film. It was a spectacular job in both categories by Ben Burtt, one of the greatest sound men of all time, and it should be recognized as such.

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing:
Prediction: WALL-E
My Pick: WALL-E

Best Achievement in Makeup:
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
My Pick: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:
Prediction: “Down To Earth” – WALL-E
My Pick: “Down To Earth” – WALL-E

The best original song category has gotten stranger and stranger the past few years. In an effort to nominate more songs from the films themselves (as opposed to the closing credits) they stopped allowing the studios to send out soundtracks, only letting the songs be heard from watching the actual movie. Yet here we have only 3 nominees, and 2 are from the closing credits. I adored “Down To Earth” and it was an important part of the film, even being over the closing credits, and it’s definitely my pick. I thought “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire was a fun song, and is fine to be nominated but didn’t add much to the movie, and I didn’t even notice the other song from that film. I am EXTREMELY mad that there are no nominees from the only musical of the year that featured original music, High School Musical 3: Senior Year. I know people just dismiss it, but it had some wonderful songs in it, and it certainly sold more CDs than the other films combined. Plus it’s the sort of movie that’s supposed to be nominated in this category, a holdover from the days when dozens of original musicals would come out in a year. I still pick “Down to Earth”, but am disappointed in the nominees.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score:
Prediction: WALL-E
My Pick: WALL-E

Wishful thinking, but still well deserved, if unlikely.

Best Achievement in Costume Design:
Prediction: The Duchess
My Pick: Australia

Best Achievement in Art Direction:
Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
My Pick: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Achievement in Editing:
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
My Pick: Frost/Nixon

Best Achievement in Cinematography:
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
My Pick: WALL-E

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Published or Produced:
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
My Pick: Frost/Nixon

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Prediction: WALL-E
My Pick: WALL-E
It would be HUGE if WALL-E won this, and would pave the way for a Pixar nomination for best picture in the future.

Best Achievement in Directing:
Prediction: Danny Boyle; Slumdog Millionaire
My Pick: Andrew Stanton; WALL-E

I’ve never valued the direction in an animated film as much as in WALL-E, it just felt like there was such vision behind it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Prediction: Penelope Cruz; Vicky Christina Barcelona
My Pick: Julie Walters; Mamma Mia!

I know my pick is silly, but she was spectacularly hilarious in Mamma Mia! and her performance of “Take a Chance on Me” was to die for.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Prediction: Heath Ledger; The Dark Knight
My Pick: Heath Ledger; The Dark Knight
This is a tough one. I am and have always been opposed to giving Oscars for sentimental reasons (see Sean Connery in The Untouchables). I thought Heath was great as the Joker, but I also think it’s a shame he had to have such a wonderful performance in what is generally a mediocre movie. I hate to be down on things, but when I think of the Joker, I will always think of Jack Nicholson, not Heath Ledger. When I think of Heath Ledger, I won’t think of The Dark Knight, but of A Knight’s Tale. It’s a great and terrifying performance that deserves to win, made all the more poignant by his untimely death, but it will not define the man or the role for me. (I would also like to add that it is spectacular that Robert Downey Jr. got nominated for Tropic Thunder. The Academy rarely recognizes comedy, and his performance was brilliant.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Prediction: Kate Winslet; The Reader
My Pick: Meryl Streep; Mamma Mia!

Comedy is harder than drama, and musical comedy is harder still. I’d like to see a winner in the category for women from a movie about the power and strength and beauty of women.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Prediction: Sean Penn; Milk
My Pick: Frank Langella; Frost/Nixon

I didn’t see Milk, I though Mickey Rourke was great in The Wrestler which was only an ok movie. I like Mickey Rourke’s personal comeback, and how it sort of mirrors the movie (hopefully without the tragedy) but they shouldn’t give Oscars for personal stories. Frank Langella was spectacular as Richard Nixon, even if he had the advantage of playing the role on stage many times. It’s hard to beat a performance like that.

Best Picture:
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
My Pick: WALL-E

It is a crime of unforgivable proportions that WALL-E was not nominated. The voting members of the Academy (of which there are thousands) should get over themselves and realize that animation is a form of art on film that is just as worthy as any other. Beauty and the Beast was nominated once upon a time. Don’t give me “It’s a kid’s movie” crap. Babe was nominated. Since when do the best films only have an R rating? (Yes I know Benjamin Button was PG-13, I’m making a point.) The winners the last for years, since Lord of the Rings, have all been R rated. An R rating does not make a film more real or more important. Sex, violence, drugs and language aren’t the only ways to tell a worthwhile story. It’s certainly necessary for some stories but those aren’t the only ones we should look at. We don’t need to define what’s “real” by how dark and edgy we think it is. 50 years from now, or 100, the movies from 2009 that people remember will not be any of the nominees, they will be things like Prince Caspian, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, possibly The Dark Knight, Mamma Mia!, Quantum of Solace, and definitely WALL-E. Maybe we should stop trying to look artistic and start watching movies with our hearts instead. It’ll be nice if Slumdog wins, to at least show that a movie doesn’t have to be a tragedy to be good, that happy endings are still valid endings.

 

So, what do you think? Disagree with any of my predictions or picks? Or agree? The Oscars are tonight, hosted by Hugh Jackman, and afterwards I’ll post my score and my thoughts on the event (really this time) and the awards for those interested. Have a great Oscar Day!